Weekly Friday Market Analysis: 18/10 Cryptocurrency and Traditional Markets

Posted by John Kelvin on Oct 18, 2019 3:13:55 PM

Cryptocurrency Markets

Prices continue to push down, indicating that the bulls are weak. Bitcoin (BTC) dominance slid down from 71 down to 66, while Altcoin dominance saw an increase from 28 up to 33. The week started with rejection and a test of the previous support. What really happened during the week in the crypto space?

  • According to major data provided, $USDT's circulating supply is around $41 billion, which is more than BTC. In reality, the actual authorized circulating supply is $4.28 billion.
  • Telegram to delay the $TON blockchain launch for 5 months
  • Bank of Canada is exploring digital currency that would replace cash.
  • Ahead of BTC's halving, at block 599,760, 85.7% of all BTC has been mined. Only 3,003,000BTC is remaining.
  • FC Bayern Munich announces a digital token for fans.

BITCOIN (BTC): BTC/USD Technical Analysis

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BTC has continued to hold its levels inside the rectangular levels of resistance and support, not indicating any immediate sign of breakout. The Bollinger Bands (BB) are currently showing a bearish expansion to the down side after five days of consolidating below the 20-day period SMA. The relative strength index (RSI) is signaling a push back to test 20 and way below 20 (which will indicate yet another oversold level). The rectangular price range levels (resistance and support) $8626 down to $7789 still hold for now. A close below the support at $7789 will see a price sell off down to a technical support at $6900 or below.



$ETH is not left out in this bearish move. Holding its position since on the 7th of this month (Oct 2019), ETH has started to form a bearish chart pattern called the head and shoulders top (which was completed on the 16th of Oct 2019), and it broke down and retested the levels of breakdown. This retest made the chart more valid as the move to the down side continued. Technical analysis suggests more moves down to test the major target at $161, if the bullish div is averted.



LINK has been performing well lately, but a closer look at the lower time frame chart price broke down from a descending triangle chart pattern. There's a descending triangle, which is a bearish chart pattern, only after it has broken down from the horizontal support level. After breaking down from the support level, it tested the target at $2.191. Technicals suggests that the price is still ranging between $3.1 down to $2.1, with a likely retest of the $2.1 again (on the daily time frame).



Not much has been going on the past 18days. The price of XTZUSD has consistently seen a range bound price (with more and more price rejection to the upside). Trades within this range carry high risk, as the price levels are between resistance and support. Technicals suggest a test of the resistance at $0.9595.

The Traditional Market Analysis

Before the market opened on Sunday 13th of Oct 2019, the market stayed focused on the Brexit deal. The result from the last minute deal went from three different highlighted bases: from 1) despair, as Northern Ireland's DUP party said it could not support proposed solutions to Irish border checks "as things stand," to 2) euphoria as Juncker said the UK and EU have reached a deal, and back to 3) disappointment after the DIP again said it wouldn't vote for Johnson's Brexit deal when it is set for a vote on Saturday. The European Union Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson both confirmed via Twitter that a Brexit deal had been reached. The question now is, what happened to the prices of different currencies?

EURUSD Price Analysis



EUR/USD mover higher after reaching the first target. After breaking out from the descending triangle chart pattern, price pulled back to retest the previous resistance and the new support. The Brexit news, which turned out to be positive, pushed the price higher. The American dollar is under selling pressure amid a better market mood. EUR/USD moved above 1.1140. As it moves closer to the fresh monthly high, traders are leaning on to the bullish side. Technicals suggest a greater upside to test the second target at 1.120.

GOLD Price Analysis



While the Brexit news affected the prices of some currencies, Gold prices fell as central bankers dampened rate cut hopes. The three hour chart shows a clear symmetrical triangle which has been forming since the 11th of Oct 2019. The symmetrical triangle is a neutral chart pattern, and can act as a continuation chart pattern or a reversal chart pattern.

The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. The volume trends downward 86% of the time before any breakout/breakdown. Breakout upward 60% of the time, and 73% of the way to the triangle apex, and 74% of the way for downward breakouts. Technicals suggest a breakout to the upside, as price is leaning to the downsloping resistance; targets to the upside are pegged at $1500. The breakout to the upside will automatically trigger the target.

US500 Price Analysis



No doubt the price of US500 is at the edge of breaking out from its all-time-high. On the daily chart, the 200-day Simple moving average (SMA) served as a support for price at $2794, $2810, and at $2860. The pattern on the daily chart is called the ascending triangle chart pattern. The breakout from the ascending triangle is more reliable when the boundaries are tested several times.

The price is likely to pull back down after reaching the resistance. Irrespective of this move, technicals suggest the price will continue to lean more at $3000 close to the resistance, before a potential breakout to a near target of $3100.


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. Traders should always make sure they carry out their own research before buying any idea given. The views expressed in this article are the author’s and may not represent the views of EMX.

Topics: Trading Ideas, Market Review